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- David Petraeus, senior UK intelligence official raise concerns over return of violence and potential refugee crisis
LONDON: The withdrawal of foreign forces from Afghanistan will not mark the end of Taliban violence and will result in a situation that must be 鈥渕anaged鈥� to avoid full-scale conflict, senior US and UK military figures have warned.
Retired US Gen. David Petraeus and Sir John Scarlett, a senior UK intelligence official, questioned the withdrawal process and raised concerns over the resulting long-term implications in an interview with Wilson Center President, Director and CEO Mark Green.
It comes ahead of the September withdrawal deadline that came as a result of long-term negotiations, including the landmark Doha agreement last year.
But Petraeus warned that a withdrawal would not result in long-term peace: 鈥淭he big lesson of the past 20 years is that if you withdraw and declare victory and go home, they will be back.
鈥淪o instead, what you have to do, especially in cases where you can鈥檛 鈥榳in,鈥� where victory is not possible, you have to manage it. And the way to manage it is to get to the smallest, most affordable 鈥� in terms of blood and treasure 鈥� presence and capability that we can possibly design,鈥� he said.
鈥淲e could have achieved the objective that we were staying in Afghanistan to accomplish, which is to prevent Al-Qaeda, and then more recently, Daesh, from establishing sanctuaries on Afghan soil under this very Islamist regime, the Taliban,鈥� he continued.
Scarlett also questioned the withdrawal, arguing that a better option would have been to maintain a 鈥渕odest鈥� military presence in the war-torn country.
He said: 鈥淭here was another path. There has been a modest troop presence there over the last year, but they weren鈥檛 actively engaged in fighting 鈥� they were actually providing support.
鈥淎nd so it isn鈥檛 necessarily, 鈥楽hould I stay or should I go?鈥� It鈥檚 whether or not we were willing to maintain a modest presence there to help continue to build capacity and manage risks.鈥�
He added that the withdrawal 鈥� which also includes NATO allies 鈥� was primarily a US decision, and that questions remain over how it was reached.
Scarlett said: 鈥淚n a way, it鈥檚 been expected, because it鈥檚 been the policy to withdraw as part of the negotiated agreement with the Taliban, under the previous administration, but there鈥檚 clearly 鈥� particularly in Afghanistan, but also really across Europe 鈥� quite a degree of surprise.
鈥淭here will be tens of thousands of refugees going into Pakistan and possibly into central Asian states. I鈥檓 afraid Pakistan will wonder about US sustainability and commitment in the medium-to longer-term.
鈥淭here鈥檚 obviously an issue of credibility here, not just for the US, but also for the allies,鈥� he concluded.